Maths Expounded

Day Four. Last day of gym for the week. Spent much of yesterday in Nawth Alibam’s Shining CIty on the Hill and in and around staff call and foodstuff acquisition I had occasion to reflect on my recent blot on the maths of terrorism.

So I thought I would do a bit of a word picture of a specific scenario, the one of greatest interest right now, 

  1. A group of citizens are gathered
  2. A number of terrorists arrive and either take hostages, begin executions, or both. (Note: these are executions. The terrorists are acting like an organizations so the humanity of the citizens is relevant only on its impact on those not present.)
  3. Somehow the constabulary is alerted.
  4. The constabulary marshals forces, and transports them to the locale. Then reconnaissance, analysis, and planning must occur before any substantive reaction.

A simple dynamical analysis of this indicates that the most significant time factor is the latency between the arrival of the terrorists and the constabulary being able to initiate ameliorative action.

This latency is not, in any sense, the result of any malice or incompetence. (Elected officials who “fund” the constabulary is a separate question.) If anything it is characteristic of the overall organization. A good part of it is deliberate to reduce casualties.

While some things may be done to decrease this latency, nothing presents itself that is able to substantially reduce the damage. 

To effect a substantial reduction, a change of dynamics is necessary. The most effective change, at least for this scenario (and many others,) is to require all adults of adequate physical and mental capability to be armed, trained, and qualified in the use of those arms.  

This does not eliminate casualties, but it does minimize them. It’s the only practicable way (found to date,) to reduce the latency to a minimum.

Yes, it’s an ivory tower solution and thereby not implementable per se. But a modified variant could be. 

 

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Pronounced Opposite

Two Day. Lower air temperature than yesterday when I ventured out to gym but the weather beavers foretell highr maximum today. Glad of the respite; weary of summer already. Except for not having to fear ruptured plumbing.

Gym was sparse. No educationalists. Schule is definitely desessioned. Podcasts were mediocre. High point was Guardian podcast on some of the strange (?) ways we humans view money. And use it. 

Thereafter downhill.

Different clerk this week who can’t seem to do what needs be done. Or is a bit of a sadist? Hard to tell. Especially in that business. her sole grace seems to be arriving earlier than the permanent one and thus I can get home earlier. Which is of mixed value to FD SCP. 

Not much cognition this morning. Too much distraction. Pornography – food this morning and cosmetics – on the televisions. Glad I hadn’t eaten. Nauseating enough on a relatively void stomach. One segment was some sort of shoping/cooking race. Ostensibly as a simulation of home entertainment. Do people do that any more? It was rare when I was a child and rarer now. I haven’t done it in thirty or forty years. No desire on the part of either myself or my friends. Why would anyone put themselves to such a burden, for so little? Is it an EXTRO thing. Or a Bog thing? Or both. Demented, regardless.

Of course, I suspect it’s more about the fantasy television people call reality. Sort of like if you have to tell me its a science, it isn’t. So if you have to tell me it’s reality, it isn’t? Especially if on television?

That strikes me as a model of modern society. It is the opposite of what pronouncement figures tell me it is. I shall have to conduct observation and make analysis.

Two Day. Back to gym. Sparse. And passable podcast episodes. Although forty-one minutes of Tyrannosaurus was a whole LOT TOO much. 

Ran across an article [Link] about a tweet by DeGrasse Tyson. 

of an “improved” pledge of allegiance.

At least he got rid of the superstitious mysticism. But it’s still broken. By definition, Justice for a few is Justice for none. Not that Justice is at all objective, of course. But then no government has ever been Just. It’s alien to the nature of organization.

But I appreciate the try.

 

Name Recognition

One day. Back to gym. Getting back to usual. Modal? Still not much distance but have the resistance half restored. And am listening to podcasts again which helps keep heart rate down.

Podcast today was the usual, an episode of the CNC’s “Best of Ideas”, this one called Stuffed about the increased stercus in our diets since the Reagan era began. So much for deregulation being good for the country. Makes for an interesting outlook, blaming the Obesity Epidemic on the Gipper. Still there seems less harm/risk in trusting the White House to an actor instead of a businessman.

Especially when the latter is a Nazi.

I ran across an article [Link] entitled “African-American men with historically black names live a year longer.” My first thought on seeing this was whether it should be considered racist. Yes, I know that I have discussed how racism is scientific garbage and the Yankee government uses it as a means of control but this was about work done by an academic and since they are the most sensitive about the falsehood, they think they are immune to it.

It’s basically a statistical article and the only possibly racist aspect of it seems to be the list of “historically black names.” I have to admit that I expected names like Chaka to be on the list – original African names – but it was a mixture of bible derived names or names vaguely muslim. Historical in the sense of mid-Nineteenth century to mid-Twentieth. None of these individualized (?) names with extra syllables or vowel swaps. I suspect that distinction is important but I don’t mean that as criticism. I have enough problems mispronouncing words in the dictionary so it’s my problem.

Anyway, the text says one tear but the example bar graph looks more like three years. One year is so small compared to the standard deviation that it’s hard to credit. Three is more than three times as credible. The joy of an “S” curve. 

I won’t elaborate but what seems rational to me is an argument that at the time these names conferred status which is something all people want. In fact, that’s why the extra syllables and the vowel shifts. Mothers trying to help their children. I have to wonder if it helps. And what about Euro-Americans? How about some data on that?

I heard this morning that John Medicine Crow had passed. Last (?) war sachem of the Crow. Somehow I doubt he’ll be interred in Arlington but I like to think Marse Robert would have approved of such.

Death of Money

Sixth Day. Air temperature again below the L->S phase change temperature for dihydrogen oxide. Podcast download day. Survival for the gym desert. 

Getting old is not for the young. You have got to have used up all your altruism and empathy and such to be able to withstand, however briefly, the ills of age. Needless to add, I am still under the weather although at least now undergoing some treatment. 

In that frame of mind, it seems meet to eye a couple of articles. First, a nice article [Link] entitled “Stephen Hawking Says We Should Really Be Scared Of Capitalism, Not Robots.” Not that I haven’t hammered on this previously but Hawking says it a lot better, which we can probably being educated in England rather than the Yankee republic.

If machines produce everything we need, the outcome will depend on how things are distributed. Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution. So far, the trend seems to be toward the second option, with technology driving ever-increasing inequality.

What struck a resonance was something unsaid but now rather obvious: the death of money.

If we go the route of complete inequality, then the serfs will have no money and the capitalists will have it all, so once we get past a transition period while the capitalists thin their own ranks, money become irrelevant.

If we go the route of equality, then money becomes meaningless except possibly for some bookkeeping purposes.

So money dies.

Icy Doubts

Ice Cream Day and rising less than refreshed and carefree. Feels more like a monday. And quite colding outside. A good day for misery.

On which azimuth, it occurs to me that

The Principal Difference between the Two Political Parties seems to be who they want to pay Welfare.

This leads us to question the basic morality of both. Which is righteous, giving money to the rich or giving money to the poor? Both? Neither? 

If we settle this question will it correct things?

Ode of Joy

Saturn’s Day. Yuck. The weather beavers were accurate: it snowed yesterday. Not sure how much is out there but not much. A few centimeters, And I don;t propose to go sample a hundred different spots on my property to get a meaningful mean. Well, expectation value.

It did get low in temperature last night. Not as low as foretold for tomorrow but lower than the weather beavers foretold. Except the Yankee government’s National Weather Service. Second winter I have been keeping statistics that they have a lower “error” expected value than the big teethed ones in Nawth Alibam’s Shining City on the Hill.

So why do we bother with them? Not sure. Their news is almost always irrelevant or redundant, and too often stale. Much of what they present is rubbish and rotted rubbish. Kitchen scraps. Sob sister stercus. Ivory soap of what I watch from them is the weather. And that part is increasingly inaccurate compared to other, more available, sources.

No wonder the GEN Ys are cutting their connection to programmed television.

The only merit I can find to it is that it occurs as a time when FD SCP and I come together to watch. Which is a good, if somewhat warped, thing. But enough to justify those folks’ existence? 

I will wait till good daylight to assay out of house to see if the roads are iced. I suspect strongly that they are. The inspection is more one of insecurity and dedication than anything else. After all, I know the local conscript parents and the Greater Metropolitan Arab government have done bupkus – at most – to ameliorate the unsafety of the streets. What are they after all, responsible? Of course not. 

Message to folks thinking of moving to Arab: count on losing several days of work when the roads ice up because the city can spend millions for religionist lamps but zilch for safety. Stay in Huntsville where they have a real government that accepts responsibility and actually does things to safeguard its citizenry.

At least the Arab Electron Uncooperative hasn’t bugged out yet. Yet. Waiting is. Ditto the Oneonta Telephone Company. Although their ISP bandwidth should go away in another hour with all the people cooped up wanting to gratify their sensory depravity instantly.

Another fun day expected in Greater Metropolitan Arab. Plus a lot of wrecked motorcars driven by bogs who have no idea how to drive, much less on ice.

Bunker Day in the Sowth.