Ran across an article [Link] entitled “Study: If you favor Jif peanut butter over Skippy, you’re probably a conservative” this morning. The article is a plagiarism from a Washington Times article which is a plagiarism of a U Chicago study report.
It talks about the observables that are used to predict if someone is of a particular political (or some other state such as “Race”) disposition. I’m assuming this is related to some of the algorithms used by FaceScroll and Amazing to tailor content/advertisements. I have commented previously how flaky and inaccurate those algorithms are: offer me five pairs of shoes at a time, none of which are available or made in my size. IOW, fundamental negation.
The title caught my attention span because I consume neither Jif nor Skippy, and never had. I forget what my parents fed me – between vanilla wafers – as a child but when I got to graduate schule I began eating IGA peanut butter because it came in a five gallon bucket (among other, smaller sizes) and living on a TA salary ate a peanut butter sandwich (on week old bread from a day-old store) every day. I still eat IGA peanut butter even though I have to drive an hour each way to the nearest IGA store. Which is in the opposite direction from Nawth Alibam’s shining city on the hill.
So what does this do to the prediction? Am I a fascist or an anarchist since I am clearly neither a conservative nor a liberal? And does this have any relationship to the reality of the situation?
If I drill down to the next level, I find an enlightening graphic:
Note that all of these percentages are between 0.5 and 0.6, which is close to being a draw. IOW, assuming this is a two state observable, then a person who owns a fishing rod has a probability of 0.43 of being a conservative. Seems an awfully poor predictor to me. WHich probably explains why these predictions are such a pile of Stercus.
I especially like the one that a person who owns a POV is 0.57 likely to be a liberal. This when there are more POV in the Yankee republic than there are adults in the same bin.
I should comment that I don;t use frozen bread dough – I make my own – but I do freeze bread. I do use disposable plates – very unsustainment! And I don’t eat at Applebee’s because I hate their food and I don’t but Dockers pants because I buy everything but suits and ties on-line. But I have owned several Chevrolets and if they would bring back the Corvair – hurrah! for Ralph Nader! – I would buy one in an instant.
The best thing I can say about this is – CONFIRMATION that these analyses are largely diarrheatic cow crap.