Once more into the week. Air temperature up a bit and the gym thankfully sparse. Enjoyable podcast, an episode of the CBC’s “Best of Ideas” of an “idea” conference. Quite good speakers. One lawyer talking about how the law is all about blame and not justice. Not news but refreshing to hear. Rather upholds some of my direst suspicions of the system.
Also a rabbi who counsels lust in marriage. Refreshing. Except the part where he talked about Jobs and how Apple’s success was all about lust. Not comforting although it did seem to explain why they are failing.
On which azimuth I ran across an article [Link]in a rumor rag entitled “Is the smartphone age OVER? Analysts say 2015 will be the first full year of single-digit worldwide growth”. This rather illustrates what is wrong with journalism today. More lust and sales than actual facts. Gives the impression that we shall stop phoning any day now.
What the article quite ignores is rationality. Let me quote from another article [Link]
The translation is that the ratio of cellular subscriptions to population – for Tellus – is ~ 0.96. So the factoid is that sales are slowing because the customer base has almost completely been shifted from initial acquisition to replacement.
It’s called a Logistics Curve, Schmucklets!
The thesis that smartphones are dead is specious and unsupported. No mention of anything to replace them and I see no indication that the boggerate is quickly going to abandon them. They may be early adopters but they have to have something to adopt and there ain’t no such, so far as I can tell.
What they don’t talk about is the actual changes that will occur. With the market saturated, the contest now becomes service for profit. No capitalize PROFIT. Service will go away, or, at least, down. So smartphone usage may decrease just because service will get worse and there will be no good reason to have anything other than a simple talk/text phone.
I will leave further elaboration as an exercise for the reader.