What does Amerika have in common with Egypt? As the joke goes, “denial”. From what I can observe, bog are maths denialists and politicians are reality denialists.

What do the two have in common? Obamacare.

To understand this we have to consider an area of maths called catastrophe theory. And no, this doesn’t have to do with sink holes in the Floridas or airplanes crashing in Birmingham or New Yawk. What they have to do is describe relatively rapid changes in conditions. Usually on a localized level. If we put that infunctional terms, a small change in one of the independent variables makes a big – catastrophic – change in the dependent variable.

I know the last paragraph is likely unintelligible to both bogs and pols, no commentary there on intelligence, so we’ll proceed to the case in point.

Obamacare mandates that (for most businesses,) any employee who works 30 or more hours per week gets health insurance coverage. And what the journalists are making big grrr brrr about is how many businesses are cutting employees back to 29 hours per week. There seems to be great surprise. And all the pols are denying any impact or importance.

Now let us consider this from the standpoint of catastrophe theory. There are two stable states for the employers when confronted with increased overhead cost (as applicable to this situation:) they can hire more people and cut everyone back to 29 or fewer hours per week; or they can fire some people and make the other work overtime. And the independent variable that determines which state is relevant? The unemployment fraction.

If unemployment is high and it’s easy to find employees the first state applies. If unemployment is low and it’s hard to find employees the second state applies. And even though the administration says the recover is going it’s still not enough to make it economically preferable to not hire new employees to avoid the cost of Obamacare.


And the NSA is more than welcome to read this blot.

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